Orson Scott Card -- Learning From History:

"Only fools believe that an enemy cannot do what he threatens to do.

The Brits really believed that because they had a long reputation for ruling the ocean, Germany could not really challenge them. They ignored all the intelligence reports about Germany's effort to rebuild its army and, particularly, its air force.

They seemed to believe that just by being Britain, they could stop Germany whenever they wanted to.

Similarly, Americans seem to think that no matter what weapons Iran develops, when it becomes necessary we can stop them.

Well, maybe. But right now we could stop Iran without any threat of their detonating nuclear weapons anywhere. In a year or two or five (estimates vary, but the inevitability is not denied anywhere), we will have to stop Iran while facing the threat of the use of nuclear weapons against our armies.

If we invade a nuclear Iran, they will simply detonate nuclear weapons over their own soil to destroy our armies. And there is no technology currently foreseen that could stop them. "

UPDATE:  I have it on good authority that this column has been forwarded up the chain and is now laying on President Bush's desk.